Louisville football: What to know, how to watch, predictions vs. Wake Forest

Louisville football has the chance to make a massive statement against No. 24 Wake Forst on Saturday. What to know before the Cards take on the Deacs.

Scott Satterfield and Louisville football will look to replicate the magic of his first two seasons on Saturday at Wake Forest.

During a shocking opening season at Louisville, Satt and the Cards went to Wake Forest and ended the nation’s 4th-longest winning streak. Then, amid turmoil in the program, the Cards took care of business when they hosted the Demon Deacons to end last season.

Now, Louisville faces a familiar obstacle. An undefeated ranked Wake team on the road.

First down: What to know

Who: Louisville. 3-1 (1-0) @ No. 24 Wake Forest, 4-0 (2-0)

When: October 2nd, 2021 | 12:30 PM

Where: Truist Field | Winston-Salem, North Carolina (Capacity 31,500)

TV: RSN in Louisville (Spectrum 929)
Bally Sports South. If you don’t have it and you’re in Louisville, call your local watering hole and ask if they have it. Shoutout spectrum. Middle finger to Bally. Double birds to ACC decision-makers.
ESPN3 or RSN outside of Louisville and Wake Forest market

Listen: 790 WKRD in Louisville

Tickets: 3rd-party tickets here.
Purchase tickets through Wake Forest here.
There appear to be about 200 tickets out there, and most are fairly affordable if you were thinking about making the trip.

Last meeting: Louisville won 45-21 on December 12th, 2020

Series history: Louisville leads the series 6-2 | Scott Satterfield is 2-0 vs. Wake Forest

Spread check: Wake Forest -7 (Courtesy of SI Sports Book)

O/U: 61.5

Thread check: We aren’t superstitious, but we are a little stitious.
https://twitter.com/UofLFootball/status/1443603769392975873?s=20

Same threads as 2019.

Related: Week 5 ACC Power Rankings

Second down: What to watch for

What to expect from Wake Forest

A sense of urgency

I bet you didn’t have Wake Forest being the top team in the ACC on your 2021 bingo card, did you?

It’s early but Dave Clawson’s group is currently at the top of the ACC standings at 2-0 and appears to be a legitimate threat to Clemson this year.

Turnover lurking

One reason why Wake Forest has had such a successful start to the 2021 campaign is their ability to force turnovers defensively. Through four games the Demon Deacons have already forced 11 turnovers, including seven interceptions and four fumbles. Despite not having “big name” players, the Decs are one of the most experienced and smartest defenses in the country. Behind a stout pass-rush and a steady back end, Wake Forest has terrorized its opponents thus far making plays in a variety of ways.

You can question the level of opponents, at least outside of Virginia, but this Wake Forest team appears to be legitimate when it comes to making you pay for mistakes. They can play a variety of coverages and they have speed all over the field, which is something that’s different from years past. 9 players are credited with a sack for Wake and 8 players have forced a turnover. Guys like Calen Carson, Taveon Redd (tied with Carson for lead in INTs) Luiji Vilain (leads the team in sacks), Luke Masterson, Ryan Smeda Jr., DJ Taylor, and others are all making plays at a high level and will make it difficult for Malik Cunningham to operate.

Testing a major Louisville weakness

It’s been an up and down, bend don’t break type of season for the Louisville football defense. Ole Miss, UCF, and more recently FSU have all had their way on the ground, combining for 597 rushing yards in three games. On Saturday we saw Jashaun Corbin run up and down the field with ease, rushing for 159 yards on 11 carries, including a 75-yard scamper for a TD.

Corbin exposed Louisville’s struggle to make plays at the point of attack, putting the linebackers and secondary in difficult spots to make tackles. Countless times Louisville football got the proper angle and couldn’t make the tackle. While other times you saw players out of position and incapable of making the proper play. When you take away the scrambles/sacks of McKenzie Milton (rushed 11 times for -20 yards) FSU ends up carrying the ball 8.2 yards each time they run. Call it lack of focus. Call it one-time mistakes. Whatever it is, Louisville has to come correct on Saturday.

Wake Forest is top 15 in the country in rushing attempts, spreading out the love between talented backs Christian Beal-Smith, Justice Ellison, Christian Turner, and quarterback Sam Hartman. They are a team that will pound the football continually taking the three and four-yard plays, pulling defenses in the box in the process. They play that weird, slow walk-up style where the running back takes his time finding the holes before hitting it and going all of which test the defense’s ability to stay patient.

Last year in the season finale, Louisville football’s defense did a great job of doing just that and making the tackle on the first try. Can that continue? If it does, Louisville should be in a position to win.

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What to expect from Louisville football

More 3rd down conversions

At one point in the FSU game, the Louisville football offense was 8/9 on third-down conversions. That’s an INCREDIBLE 88% conversion rate.

Wake Forest is the 78th best team in the nation when it comes to stopping third-down conversions, getting off the field 39% of the time against their opponents. Against UVA, Wake allowed 8/16 third-down conversions and despite that many times having drives kept alive, still won the game in a decisive fashion. Louisville has shown the ability to convert on third down by way of a variety of play calls. Most frequently it’s been the legs of quarterback Malik Cunningham that have kept plays alive and allowed drives to continue marching onward.

Louisville has to find themselves in third and short situations against Wake rather than third and long distances (obvious). When teams have been able to “pin their ears back” and rush the passer with no regard, they’ve often found success. I don’t have the stats to back this claim up, but I know from seeing it with my eyes each week, that’s when Cunningham has thrown the most incompletions and forced the most runs.

Wake Forest has a strong pass rush and a stout run defense which will test the playcalling of Scott Satterfield and execution of the Louisville offensive line and receivers blocking downfield.

Triple J’s

For the second time in this young season, Louisville will face a top 50 rushing defense. Not only has Wake Forest shown the ability to rush the passer but they’ve also dominated their opponents on the ground.

With Braden Smith now officially out for the season, we know what will come next. An even heavier dose of what I’m calling Triple J’s – Justin Marshall, Josh Johnson, and Jordan Watkins – for Louisville football.

All three have played well this season.

Of Watkins, Satterfield told local media on Monday, “I have great confidence in (Jordan) Watkins in what he can do. He is going to catch the football, can run after the catch, and I thought he had another solid game for us. He played well in the Central Florida game, played well in the Florida State game. If you go back to the Wake Forest game, he played well against Wake Forest last year.”

A confident team who believes they’ll win

I know it’s cliche to say that one team believes they’ll win more than another, but I’m going with it anyways. Following the miraculous walk-off pick-six by Jaylin Alderman, Louisville football took care of business in the first half against FSU.

There is certainly reason to believe the Cards can bottle this positive momentum.

Third down: What the coaches had to say

Satterfield on the matchup with Wake Forest:  “I think every year Wake Forest is one of the most well-coached teams that we play. Coach Clawson and his staff do a great job; I have been battling against Coach Clawson for many years, all the way back when he was at Richmond and he came to Appalachian State and played us in the playoffs, then he was a Bowling Green while I was at Toledo. I have a lot of respect for him and what he does with his program. He always gets a lot out of his players, and they are playing at a high level right now in all three phases. They have a veteran team with a lot of players that have been around the program for a while. It is a lot of the same faces that we have seen over the last two or three years, but I think one of the things that they have done well again this year is the turnover margin. I feel like every year they do a great job with that aspect of the game; they are very efficient on offense and take care of the football.”

Satterfield on what to expect traveling to Wake: “There is a lot of momentum down there, they are undefeated and ranked this week in the top-25. It is similar to what happened two years ago when went down there, they were ranked team and it was a great football game. We played this team in our last game last year so there is a lot of familiarity because it is a lot of the same players from game that are contributing now. It should be a great matchup; we are looking forward to heading down there and playing in a good environment at 12:30.”

Satterfield on dealing with injuries:  “I think the next guy that’s coming in there, he’s got to prepare just like the player did before him and we’re doing some things at practice that are a little bit different but whether we had an injury or not to have anything to do with that. I believe you’ve got to get your players fresh to the game they’ve got to be mentally fresh, physically fresh, we learned a lot I thought within our first three contests with those short weeks, we learned a lot of things that we could do and so we’ve tweaked a little bit of the practice but we still got to prepare the way we’ve always prepared so whoever’s in the game has got to be ready to go.”

Satterfield on Wake Forest’s offense: “It’s a unique offense, the things that they do, it’s the slow ride with the running back and they created some problems with you by doing that you know, you’re right if you get too aggressive and you get out of a gap that’s when they’re going to get you. You have to be fundamentally sound, you have to have an understanding what they’re trying to do offensively because they do a lot of different things with the gaps game zone read or they’ll run Hartman a little bit and then all of a sudden he’ll pull the ball he’ll throw the ball on all these routes and they got some excellent receivers.”

Dave Clawson on the matchup with Louisville: We play a very talented Louisville team. No matter where I go I end up running into Coach Satterfield. From coaching at em against Richmond in the playoffs when he was the offensive coordinator at App. My first year at Bowling Green he was the co-offensive coordinator and passing game coordinator at Toledo. Now three years in a row at Louisville. He does a great job. He’s a good head coach. He’s an excellent offensive strategist. He has a unique offense and he knows it inside out.

It’s very much a systematic offense. They have a way of creating numbers and leverage and then if you cheat it he knows the answers. So he’ll come out and probe you with different formations and motions. And once he figures out what you’re doing, he has you. He makes in-game adjustments as well as anybody. He knows his system and they execute it really well.

Clawson on Malik Cunningham: Malik Cunningham has become one of the premier quarterbacks in the ACC And all of college football. He’s become a really good accurate passer. He can beat you with his feet, he’s always been able to do that. He’s their leading rusher but he also does a good job with his drop-back game, play-action game, getting him on the boot game, he’s really dangerous. He’s a pure run/pass threat every time he gets on the edge.

Predictions

Matt McGavic: Louisville 35, Wake Forest 34
Presley Meyer: Louisville 38, Wake Forest 41
Alan Thomas: Louisville 35, Wake Forest 34
Jacob Lane: Louisville 24, Wake Forest 31
Madison Wood: Louisville 31, Wake Forest 23
Brian Trent: Louisville 45, Wake Forest 38
Ethan Sprowles: Louisville 28, Wake Forest 31
Spencer Brown: Louisville 39, Wake Forest 32
Alex Stengel: Louisville 31, Wake Forest 34
Nick Conner: Louisville 24, Wake Forest, 38