For Louisville women’s basketball, its first-round matchup with Drake figures to be a win. But that is not stopping me from freaking out about the upset potential of the Bulldogs’ potent offense.
Louisville women’s basketball fans can look forward to some difficult potential matchups with the likes of Stanford, Iowa, and Duke. Cards fans may even be looking forward to a 4-5 matchup in Austin against a game Texas squad in the second round.
But, in order to move forward in the tournament, Louisville is going to have to bring its A-game against a Drake team that comes into the tournament on a heater.
I’ll dive into what makes this Drake Bulldogs team special, but first, let’s set the mood.
Load up the Drake
F it, I’m makin em pay
Alright… Anyways, Drake. The basketball team.
Drake has a next-level scoring offense
I want things to go my way, but lately a lot of shit been going sideways
The first thing you should know about Drake is that the Bulldogs are 13th in the nation in scoring offense.
At 79.1 points per game, Drake is the second-best scoring offense the Cards will face all season (Florida State).
It is often difficult to put into perspective how solid a mid-major team’s offense is given the lack of high-level opponents on their roster. But surmise it to say that the Bulldogs made the most of their opportunities this year.
Drake scored 86 in a game where it took Iowa to overtime, and followed that up with an 80-62 win over Nebraska. The Bulldogs also dropped 94, 79, and 87 against OVC power Belmont in their three matchups this season, including an 18-point win in the conference championship game.
6’3 senior forward Maggie Bair is the team’s star. She averages 16.9 points per game on the back of 41% shooting from three.
Bair poses a tough threat for a bigger, more physical Louisville frontcourt that will have to find a way to cover a floor stretcher beyond the three-point line.
Drake’s backcourt shares the ball better than anyone
Guess you lose some and win some; Long as the outcome is income
Drake’s backcourt shares the ball better than anyone else. Or, at least, anyone not named Iowa.
The Bulldogs are second in the nation in assists with 20.9 per game.
Drake is a high-risk, high-reward team. They only boast a 1.2 assist-to-turnover ratio, giving it away 17.5 times per game while forcing 14.3 turnovers per game themselves.
They are led by Katie Dinnebier, who dishes out 5.7 assists per game to 2.5 turnovers. The 5’8 sophomore also scores 11.4 points per game and is shooting a blistering 90% from the line.
Dinnebier accounted for 19 assists in the OVC final and semifinal while getting to the line 17 times. She has made 37 of her last 38 free throws.
5’11 Taylor McCauley took over for injured star Megan Meyer in the starting lineup and has steadily influenced the backcourt. She is responsible for 2.6 assists to only 1 turnover per game this season.
How Louisville can beat Drake
Everyone who doubted me is asking for forgiveness; If you ain’t been a part of it, at least you got to witness
Given the number of surprising losses this Louisville women’s basketball team took in 2022-23, nothing is a given.
That includes a first-round matchup against a team with one of the best offenses the Cards will face all season.
The good news? Drake ranks 209th in the nation, allowing 65.5 points per game, and I think things start there for the Cards.
Louisville scores more points per game than every team Drake has faced this season besides Iowa, UMass, and Northern Iowa.
Against Iowa and UMass, the Bulldogs allowed 82 and 83 points in regulation. They lost both games in overtime. They allowed only 70 in a 1-point loss to Northern Iowa.
Perhaps most importantly, Louisville should be able to exploit Drake’s inability to hold onto the ball. Louisville turns teams over 17.4 times per game while Drake coughs it up 17.7 times a game.
The number of turnovers for the Bulldogs has been astronomical at times this season. They turned it over 30 times in that loss to UMass, 23 times in a loss to Creighton, 23 times in the loss to Iowa, 20 times against Northern Iowa, and 23 times in a bad loss to Missouri State.
Most recently, Drake coughed it up 19 times in a narrow victory in their first conference tournament victory over Missouri State.
The game plan is there to beat the Bulldogs, and Louisville seems to be improving the most in the areas where Drake is struggling.
The Cardinals recently forced Notre Dame into 22 turnovers in a beatdown where they only allowed 38 points and 24 points through three quarters.
By applying a pressure defense using a quick and deep backcourt of Mykasa Robinson, CC Carr, Hailey Van Lith, and Norika Kono, the Cards can turn Drake’s high-risk, high-reward offense over at a high clip.
I think Louisville women’s basketball wins this one. Jeff Walz takes too much pride in his team’s preparation in the NCAA Tournament.
The Cards also have six players they are losing to graduation and a roster that will almost entirely turnover in the offseason.
I think they aren’t going out in the first round. But, dammit, too many times I been wrong. I guess bein right takes too long.
Drake plays in the Missouri Valley Conference (MVC), not the Ohio Valley Conference (OVC). Belmont moved from the OVC to the MVC this season.