The team’s performances improved in the recent stretch of matches, but the results still leave much room for improvement.
Racing Louisville heads into the final 6-match stretch of the NWSL with virtually nothing to play for, but in reality, these next 6 matches will determine the direction of the club for years to come.
Based on where Racing sits in the table at the moment, the club is really only battling to see if they finish 9th, 10th, 11th, or 12th. Seven points separate the 8th place team (Orlando) from the top place club (Portland) and there is a seven-point gap between Orlando and Racing who currently sit in 9th place.
In my opinion, I see the team finishing in 11th above Gotham, but probably no higher than that. An 11th-place finish would net Racing the second overall pick in next year’s college draft which typically sees a drop in quality after the first four or five selections, so any position in the bottom four is likely to bring in a player that can immediately help in Racing’s third year.
Last year, Racing battled hard at the end of the season and seemed ready to improve in year two, but the amount of player turnover prevented any momentum from carrying over into this year. The key to the next 6 matches will be how well Racing’s core of young talent gels and fights together.
If the group of Lund, Fox, Howell, DeMelo, Chidiac, and Wang can use the next 6 matches to learn how to play together and win there may be hope for next year. However, that’s looking a bit too far into the future for now.
Good performances, but little to show for it
Here is a quick breakdown of the performance from the last 5 matches:
- San Diego Wave Away: Actual Result: 1 point / Deserved Result: 3 points / I actually hate the word “deserved”, because one of my favorite quotes from The Wire is “Deserve got nothin’ to do with it.” The original quote actually comes from Unforgiven when Clint Eastwood tells Gene Hackman, “Deserves got nothing to do with it.” He then proceeds to shoot Hackman. I guess the point I am trying to make is that ultimately “deserve” doesn’t matter, but in an alternate dimension here’s what the fair outcome would be. Racing Louisville outplayed San Diego for large sections of the match, Racing had a goal ruled out on a questionable call, and DeMelo missed a penalty so isn’t hard to imagine a scenario where Racing takes all 3 points.
- Portland Thorns Home: Actual Result: No points / Deserved Result: No points / Racing scored its first ever goal against the Thorns through Alex Chidiac, but the Thorns are the best team in the league and took care of business.
- OL Reign Home: Actual Result: 1 point / Deserved Result: 1 point / You could argue that Racing Louisville could have lost or won this match with a few different breaks either going for or against them. Katie Lund tied an NWSL record with 12 saves, so all things being equal a point was the right result.
- Washington Spirit Home: Actual Result: 1 point / Deserved Result: 1 point / Ditto for this match in that it could have been a win for both teams, so a point seems right.
- Houston Dash Away: Actual Result: 1 point / Deserved Result: 0 points / The Dash played most of the match with a player advantage and actually looked less likely to score during that period. It was a terrible performance and result for Houston and a brave performance and great result for Racing.
Add all of this up and you get 4 points earned with maybe 5 deserved, so it’s not like Racing’s performances merited much more than they got. However, the performances were better, and Racing seemed to cut down on most of the mental errors that had plagued them in the previous 6-match stretch.
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What does Racing Louisville need to get over the hump?
Depth. Racing simply isn’t deep enough at every position to have a roster that I would consider “playoff ready.” This was painfully obvious during its difficult loss to the OL Reign in the Women’s Cup final. I go into detail here on my blog, but in a nutshell, Racing Louisville doesn’t have enough game-changing substitutes available on the bench.
I believe (and when I say this know that it’s based on nothing but my own observations and experiences) that it takes a certain type of player to make a difference from the bench. Players like Nadia Nadin, Jess McDonald, Emina Ekic, and Alex Chidiac are capable of coming on late in a match and presenting the opponent a unique problem to solve. The problem is that in the case of Nadia, Jess, and Alex they are almost always going to start.
Those starts are 100% deserved, but you need game-changing attacking talent on the bench that is ready to go from 0-60 mph in no time. Emina has shown some ability in this area, but I feel like her substitute appearances are coming a bit too late in the match.
Racing recently added Wang Shuang from China. She could also fill this role but will likely start as well. It’s hard to get a squad exactly right, but Racing’s philosophy is to have a smaller roster and to play everybody. However, the Women’s Cup was a chance to do this and Björkegren didn’t use his bench enough in my opinion.
On Björkegren, I keep vacillating in my opinion on his performance. There are many positives that he brings to the team, but I’m still not convinced he is the right answer long-term. He deserves at least part of a second year in charge, but it will be interesting to see how much of a leash he is given if progress isn’t made.
I am going to predict that he does turn things around and will be given a full year in charge next year, but it is dependent on starting quickly, or at least not as poorly as the team did in the first half of the season this year. Regardless of the coach, the club needs a good winter transfer window and draft. Björkegren has stated a preference for overseas national team level talent.
The problem with this is that usually, those players are more open to transfers during the summer transfer window which coincides with the middle of the season. If Racing sees as many comings and goings as this year in the next summer transfer window, that is a bad sign.
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What to watch for in the last 6 matches
It may sound odd, but with nothing to play for the last 6 matches of the season can still be fun for fans and important for the players. Here are some things to keep an eye on or participate in:
- Sav DeMelo has a real shot of winning Rookie of the Year. Only 4 players have a higher FotMob player rating than her this season: Sophia Smith, Mallory Pugh, Rose Lavelle, and Alex Morgan. DeMelo has 3 goals and an assist and if she can get to 5 and 3, I think she should be a shoo-in. However, the number one draft pick from last year Naomi Girma is having a fine year for the Wave and could benefit (fairly) from making the playoffs and (slightly unfairly) having a better team around her. Either way, Racing will likely make a push for DeMelo so look for related swag as the year comes to an end.
- Racing will be aiming to set the attendance record on August 27th through the “Fill the Fam” event. Lou City had a similar event and set an attendance record and seemed to have a pretty raucous crowd in its “Fill the Fam” night in a 1-0 victory over the Tampa Bay Rowdies. if you haven’t gotten tickets yet, be sure to get some for what will surely be a fun night. The Chicago fans travel fairly well, so that makes the match a little more interesting.
- Soccer Holdings LLC is sponsoring its first “Soccer Ball” in September to benefit its charitable foundation. If you can afford the tickets, the event sounds like a fun evening for a good cause. Here are the details.
- On the field, Wang Shuang who officially signed this month is a world-class addition to Racing’s attack and the first Chinese national to play in the NWSL. She scored in the Women’s Cup vs. AC Milan and has already become a fan favorite.
- By my count, 5 of the last 6 matches are realistically winnable, especially the 3 home matches. If Racing Louisville can get 10 points from 6 matches, I believe they will enter the offseason with team morale in the right place. It won’t be enough to put pressure on anyone in a playoff position, but they could play late-season spoiler against Angel City and the KC Current in their last couple of matches.
