Vince Lombardi, arguably one of the most important figures in the game of football, once said “the greatest accomplishment is not in never failing, but in rising again after you fall.” There couldn’t be a more perfect quote to describe what the last 24-36 months has looked like for the Louisville football program. Riding the waves of their first Heisman Trophy winner and subsequent *quick* rise to the top of college football, Louisville saw things come toppling down even faster than it was built.
Following the exit of Jackson to the NFL, the skeletons in the closet of the Cardinal football program were exposed as years of mistreating his staff and players, inability to recruit where it mattered, and a complete and utter lack of control over the roster led to one of the most disappointing seasons in Louisville football history.
Just less than 12 months after taking over the job for Petrino, Louisville football’s new head coach Scott Satterfield found his program in a spot that no one ever thought they could be in “year zero.” After all of the media pundits and talking heads around the country picked the Cards to finish dead last in the ACC, Louisville bounced back in only a way they could, winning eight games on the season, including their first bowl win since 2015.
Throughout the spring and summer months that followed, the level of excitement for the short-term and long-term future of the program could only rival the excitement of Stanley Hudson on Pretzel day. Following one of the most surprising finishes in program history last year, in which the Cards were able to reach the eight win mark and hold on for a bowl win over an SEC opponent, the expected “rebuild” was unofficially over. Gone were the expectations of needing three or four years to build depth and fill the roster with players that “fit the scheme” and in was an insane level of hype, talk of competing for an ACC Championship, and all the pressure to win and win now.
Louisville entered spring “miles ahead” of where many believed they would be at that point, but all eyes were on Satterfield and his staff of how they would elevate the Cards in year two. How could any one look at the Louisville program and not be excited about where they were headed? Behind a three-headed offensive monster in quarterback Malik Cunningham, 1,500-yard rusher Javian Hawkins, and 1,2000 yard receiver Tutu Atwell, the Cardinal offense was set to be one of the best in the ACC behind Clemson and North Carolina with talks about potentially fielding another Heisman Trophy Candidate.
Just as all the hype was starting to really take off in came COVID-19.
How It Started Was Supposed To Start
As you know, COVID-19 was not the name of a new wrinkle in the Louisville playbook. Instead, the Cards (and every other program) were forced to embark on a journey of navigating a worldwide pandemic to play a football season.
When COVID-19 began to spike around the country, there was a lot of doubt about having any type of college football season. COVID cancelled spring practices, cancelled recruiting visits, cancelled any type of in person activity or meeting, leaving every program across the nation, including Louisville, just hoping things turned the other direction in hopes of a season taking place.
As time went on and the season drew closer and closer, programs and conferences scrambled to do what they could to prepare for the season (as if it was going to happen). While others cancelled the season, Louisville football kept busy with Strength Coach Mike Sirigano creating “innovative” ways for their players to stay engaged and prepared both physically and mentally. Virtual tools like zoom and google meets were used for team meetings, position break out meetings, and to keep the team overall updated on what was set to come.
In easily the weirdest and least normal season in college football history, Louisville football head coach Scott Satterfield preached to his team to trust the culture that was built in year one and focus on taking care of the things that could be controlled. While Cunningham and Atwell may have had no control over the pandemic and the chances of a season, they could stay knees deep in their playbooks studying, or watching film, and mentally staying sharp for whenever football returned.
The hype didn’t die down either. Whether it was ESPN’s Football Power Index favoring the Cards to go 10-2 (back when a 12 game schedule was a thing). High level analytics showing Louisville football as the fourth best offense in the country. Official oddsmakers giving Hawkins, Cunningham, and Atwell Heisman Odds, or one of the various reporters around the country singing the praises of reigning ACC Coach of the Year Scott Satterfield, it was hard not to buy the Cards stock.
Following months of players and coaches begging and pleading for a season, even in the face of the unknown that was COVID-19, things finally got going and ACC football was confirmed to be back. The 12 game season was no longer and in was a new 10+1 schedule model that gave Louisville new life and potential ACC Championship talk (unwarranted or not).
Things continued to get better and move back to some level of normality. While commentators and reporters debated whether or not a season should happen, the Cards didn’t waste time flying home for the summer. Thanks to the hard work of the athletics department and the leadership at the University of Louisville, the football program was safely brought back to campus and given the okay to get back together and safely begin moving towards a season.
How It Re-Started
10-1. 9-2. 8-3 AT WORST. Those were the predictions tossed around following the release of the 10 game ACC schedule for Louisville football, and for the first time since 2017 there were serious expectations about the ability to be able to compete for an ACC Title (whether those were ever serious is a conversion for another day). On the outside looking in it didn’t take a football genius to see why there was so much hype for Louisville.
For the first time since 2015, Louisville football returned the same defensive coordinator for consecutive seasons with Bryan Brown. The Cardinals finally had “their guy” at quarterback after having questions entering the seasons prior. Even though they weren’t technically “their guys,” the staff returned 16 starters and countless other high-impact reserves who were more than capable of taking the Cards to the next level in the conference.
The quarterback position is where most of the hype for Louisville fell, with Cunningham drawing Heisman Trophy odds and being talked about as a guy capable of becoming the second best quarterback behind Clemson star and future number one NFL Draft pick, Trevor Lawrence. Louisville’s offense had potential that hadn’t been seen since the days of Lamar Jackson, and while Cunningham still had a lot of work to do his ability to push the ball down field through the air as well as make big plays with his legs had everyone thinking Louisville was ready to compete.
Though we’ve mostly highlighted the positives there were a lot of doubts, but as you might expect, those were mostly overshadowed by the talk about the quarterback and offensive explosion. The defense was the major talking point for just about everyone who talked about Louisville heading into the season.
Could a group that for two years had been the bottom feeders in the ACC make a big enough jump to help Louisville win games? Continunity was a reason to believe that could happen, as Bryan Brown told local media early in the summer:
“I don’t care if you’re in the NFL, high school level, college level, it doesn’t matter. When you’re changing schemes year in and year out, changing terminology year in and year out, you’re not able to play fast and understand what to expect, how to do it, when to do it, why you do it.”
Right away Brown saw a different unit, noting that they made more plays in 3-4 practices than they did the entire year prior. That only further pushed along the hype train in Louisville. Instead of seeing a group that finished 109th in FBS in scoring defense allowing 33.4 points per game, Louisville fans looked at the 10 point improvement as a reason to believe that they could replicate or surpass those numbers from the year prior.
The schedule for Louisville football was daunting out of the gates.
Following a good but not great performance against Western Kentucky, their only non-conference game on the schedule, the Cards moved into the meat of their ACC schedule. Instead of getting to open up with the likes of Syracuse or Wake Forest, Louisville went head to head with #17 Miami and #21 Pittsburgh; both games resulting in tough L’s.
For the first time on the season, we began to see huge red flags that could go a long way in determining just how successful the Cards may be. Against Miami, it was on the defensive side of the ball. Going up against one of the most electric ACC quarterbacks in D’Eriq King, Louisville gave up big play after big play, ultimately ending in their demise.
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Though they outgained Miami (and would outgain a lot of opponents in losses), throughout the game we saw an offense that wasn’t effective unless connecting on big plays down the field and a defense that was too easily confused and out of place resulting in back-to-back 75-yard plays and several unfortunate “social distancing” memes.
The loss to Miami was tough but there were enough bright spots to believe that things could turned around. The first round trip to face #21 Pittsburgh was an opportunity to prove the game prior was just a fluke or a blip on the radar. Fans said “if Louisville can just stop turning the football over and stop the big plays, the rest of the schedule will be cake.”
That didn’t happen, at least enough to result in winning games. The loss of Mekhi Becton and Tyler Haycraft proved to be far more than fans accounted for as Pittsburgh’s defense absolutely destroyed the Cards front five. By games end, Louisville’s offensive line allowed seven sacks, 12 total tackles for loss, and five quarterback hurries, leading to three interceptions and countless other bad mistakes.
Though the offense struggled, outside of a 75-yard run by Hawkins, Brown’s defense finally stepped up to the plate looking like a unit more than capable of winning football games. Forcing three sacks and two turnovers, the Cardinal defense did everything they could to help win a football game, something we hadn’t seen as a fanbase in nearly four years. It wasn’t enough to win, ultimately leaving the team at 1-2, leaving a lot of fans worried about was to come.
Troubling trends emerge for Louisville football
Through three games troubling trends that would follow the Cards through the rest of the season began to show.
1. Louisville had a massive turnover and penalty problem
2. Louisville’s offensive line was nowhere near the level of 2019 in both the running and passing game
3. Special teams struggles (unable to better control field position) and inability to force turnovers was too much to overcome
After a bye, the Cards got a chance to bounce back against Georgia Tech, a middling ACC program that was looking to catch their footing in year two of head coach Geoff Collins’ tenure. Following a big win over FSU in week one, the Yellow Jackets had struggled mightily and looked to present a perfect bounce back opportunity for Louisville on a Friday night.
Much like the old State Farm commercial with the fisherman holding a dollar seemingly in reach only to pull it at the last second and utter “almost got it,” the Cards saw something that appeared to be so close slip away. Following a 21-7 start, the Cards flaws truly began to be exposed. Going up against a freshman quarterback and true “turnover machine” in Jeff Sims, Cunningham did nothing to change the budding narrative that he was unable to lead his team to victory when it mattered most. Turning the ball over three times, and forcing zero turnovers, the Cards saw their lead dissipate and their season flash before their eyes.
Following the game Satterfield said:
“You got to take it one day at a time. You can’t look at expectations. If we looked at expectations last year, we would have tanked it early. So you can’t look at expectations, you take it one week at a time. You do the best you can. I told them we got to be committed. Some people in this world jump ship, and they quit and they give up. It’s just like life is what I told them. When you’re married with your wife and you guys have a sticky situation, what are you gonna do? You gonna run from it, or are you going to continue to fight for your marriage. It’s the same thing. It’s an analogy that we used, but we got to fight for our team. We got to continue to bring it every single day. You got to be fully committed in this deal.”
Just like that Louisville was 1-3 and things seemed to be trending towards “disappointment” territory. With a matchup against top five ranked Notre Dame looming, any thoughts of potentially competing at the top of the ACC had quickly turned into realistic (and some not realistic) concerns about the season.
With their backs against the wall, the Cards showed a new level of fight not yet seen on the season. Going up against an offensive line that Brian Kelly called ” the best he’s ever coached,” Louisville’s defense played the game of their lives. Forcing four sacks and six tackles for loss, the defense gave Louisville every single opportunity to win – something we haven’t been able to say in quite some time.
After struggling for most of the season with third down efficiency, the defense came up huge as they made stops at the necessary times and gave the offense a chance to win the game. At the beginning of the season nearly everyone would’ve agreed that it would be Louisville’s offense winning games with their big play ability, but by this point it had become perfectly clear that the offense just wasn’t able to connect on the big plays when needed. While nearly every bounce in closing minutes of big games went the Cards way in 2019, the narrative seemingly shifted in 2020.
Though Louisville walked away with an L, falling to 1-4 on the season, for the first time in a long time there was hope that things were about to get turned around. Not since 2017 had the Cards held a power five program to 12 points or less (10 points against Syracuse was the last time), and to do so against the #4 team in the country brought a lot of positivity and talk of getting back to winning moving forward.
That’s exactly what Louisville did the following week when they faced off against Florida State, an opponent who has developed into a quasi-rival over the last six years. Despite the struggles they faced the first five weeks of the season, Louisville finally seemed to put a full game together.
Cunningham threw for 278 yards and two touchdowns, connecting on a variety of big plays while taking care of the football (much to the delight of Cardinal fans). While, Javian Hawkins rushed for a season-high 174 yards and three touchdowns, giving the offensive line the confidence they desperately needed in the run game. On the other side of the ball, the defense took care of business building on an impressive showing the week prior. Despite giving up 265 yards on the ground, the secondary was electric holding Jordan Travis (A former Card) to just 141 yards passing on 32 attempts.
Louisville finally “got right” having their best and most complete performance of the season and things looked to be trending upward once again.
That feeling lasted for all of about six days as one tweet from Louisville’s beat writer from the Courier-Journal brought the reality of 2020 to the forefront.
Through the first six games Louisville football had been fortunate enough to do keep COVID-19 away from the program, but just like that 11 players were out of action, including more than half of the defensive line. It showed that no matter how many protocols you had in place and even if you did the most you could to prevent an outbreak, no one was invincible.
Louisville would play their scheduled game against Virginia Tech, even with every opportunity to back away, and did so admirably. Though the final score showed an L for the Cards, it was obvious to see that the heart and fight were still there. Unfortunately, it once again came in a game where the team had every opportunity to win.
50 percent on third down conversions, 350 yards and three touchdowns through the air and 198 yards on the ground with two touchdowns is a recipe for winning football. But for every big play the offense had there was another where they shot themselves in the foot. Three turnovers, six penalties. One step forward, three step backwards.
That unfortunate L sent the once ranked Louisville Cardinals to a 2-5 overall (1-5 in ACC) and would be the final team the team as we knew it would take the field.
How It’s Going
The player opt-outs that hit several programs across the nation leading up to the start of the college football season and even into actual games being played fortunately never affected Satterfield and the Cards.
Throughout the summer the coaching staff made it clear that if players didn’t feel safe or didn’t want to play football arrangements could be made and no hard feelings would be had. In the midst of a pandemic with a killer virus fears were normal and every coaching staff had to deal with questions, concerns, and worries to a certain extent.
Satterfield told local media, “And so, you know, when we told our players, ‘Man listen, if you don’t feel comfortable. If you have an underlying health deal, and our staff, if there’s something that you have you don’t feel comfortable. Don’t come here, we’ll still pay for your scholarship, we’ll still take care of you. But, if you don’t feel good about being here, don’t be here – go home.’
His players bought in.
But when several players and members of the staff/program tested positive, including the roommate of Javian Hawkins, things changed.
Following the cancellation of the Virginia game, the Cards went into an early bye week that would change the rest of their season.
On Monday November 16th, Louisville’s star back Hawkins’ took to Twitter to make it official that his career had come to an end and the rest of the season would not incldue him.
Gone just like that was the heartbeat of the Louisville offense and the man responsible for 2,347 rushing yards over the last two seasons.
Expectations of going 9-2 or 10-1 were long gone and now the focus was entirely on moving forward in the “rebuilding” process. Still the show had to go on and it did as Louisville traveled to face Virginia.
Things still weren’t right and the Louisville offense continued to struggle. The built in excuses of not having Hawkins as well as star wide receiver Tutu Atwell were valid, as no one expected things to be perfect following an extra week off and multiple players missing. However, things seemingly looked out of place and unlike we’d seen them before.
After laughing at the mentions of a “vanilla” offense in 2019, there was legit concern about what had happened to the Cardinals offense. With the running game now missing Hawkins, those concerns turned into more pressure on Cunningham. It showed against Virginia, especially in the air as he went 13/21 for just 161 yards passing and 1 INT to go with a career-high 197 yards rushing and two touchdowns.
How could Louisville stop the bleeding?
Syracuse.
Louisville once again was able to get back on the right side of things following an impressive performance by both the offense and the defense in a 30-0 win over the Cuse. Though the offense turned the ball over three more times, the defense recorded their first shut out of an ACC opponent since joining the conference, a huge notch in the belt of Bryan Brown.
Now Louisville finds themselves in a precarious place. They can make excuses and find reasons why falling short of success is okay or continue to fight and make the best of the time that’s available to get better and enjoy the ability to play the game they love.
When looking at the numbers it’s clear to see that Louisville is a much (much) better team than their 3-6 record shows. In fact, a lot of statistics point to a conclusion of Louisville being improved from last year in several key categories.
Ranked 38th in total offense, 35th in rushing offense, and 25th in yards per play, the Louisville offense has been one of the most explosive in the country. On the defensive side of things, Brown’s guys have improved in just about every statistic across the board climbing all the way into the top 20 in pass defense and improving their rush defense.
But those don’t tell the full story.
Turnovers
That’s all fine and dandy and in most scenarios, those would single-handily make Louisville a winning team. However, one constant has remained for the Cards on both sides of the ball – turnovers.
On offense, the Cardinals have been a turnover machine, led by Cunningham. Turning the ball over 18 times, Louisville currently sits dead last in the country in turnovers given up.
Defensively, the Cards have only taken the ball away only 7 times. In fact, on the season Louisville has only THREE games where they’ve forced a turnover.
For a team that doesn’t yet have the established talent and depth to blow anyone out, the Cardinals can ill afford to give the opposition extra possessions, let alone a dozen extra over the course of 9 games.
Negating big play ability
Next, Louisville has been defined by its lack of ability to capitalize on big plays.
In 2019, the Cardinals felt like they were a threat to hit a home run at any given point in the game. That has, for the most part, been the same storyline in 2020. The Cardinals are averaging 6.3 yards per play, up from 6.2 yards per play a season ago.
However, the difference between last season and this year is Louisville’s inability to capitalize on those big chunk plays.
It feels like every time the Cardinals seize momentum in a game, drives are stopped in their tracks by a costly penalty or untimely turnover. Those are things that simply did not happen a season ago.
Getting the young players involved
One reason we were so excited for this team entering the season was because of the opportunity to see some younger players blossoming into stars. Given that Satterfield and company brought in their second full recruiting class, it was the hope that Louisville could establish talented depth this year.
So far, there is not as much as we had hoped to show for the youth in this recruiting class, but things appear to be trending in the right direction. Freshman wide receiver Jordan Watkins worked into the rotation from day one and saw his first start against Syracuse. Redshirt freshman running back Jalen Mitchell has been a pleasant surprise in the absence of Hawkins and Hall. He recorded his first career touchdown against the Orange. Duane Martin got his first time at h-back and had a nice run and big play through the air.
Defensively, there have been tons to like about the play of newcomers such as KJ Cloyd, Josh Minkins, Lovie Jenkins, Yaya Diaby, Ja’Darien Boykin, amongst others. There has been mistakes and there have been missed opportunities, but there’s been solid improvement and a foundation laid that will benefit future teams to come.
It’s disappointing but not a wash
The 3-6 record is disappointing no matter which why you look at it, but that doesn’t mean there should be any lost hope.
Expectations were high and hopes were even higher for the 2020 season and while the record isn’t what we hoped for there still has been plenty of growth and achievements to celebrate on the season.
“It’s not all doom and gloom when the guys are in the complex, Satterfield told the media. “We’re not just constantly looking at all negative things. We’re trying to build off what we are doing good, and then trying to correct the mistakes we have made. It can be very frustrating at times, there’s no question about it for all of us, but we’re working to get better and that’s what we have to do.
With two games remaining against Boston College and Wake Forest, there’s still time to change the narrative on the season. Its been a hard fall from reality but as Lombardi said the greatest accomplishment is not never failing, it’s about rising strong again. That’s something the Cards have the ability to do over the last four weeks of the season, both with their play and with their hearts.
