TCU shocked the world by making a run to the college football playoffs in 2022 and then beating heavily favored Michigan. How Louisville football can use the TCU blueprint to make its own run in the near future.
Louisville football fans have never been higher on their program.
After Scott Satterfield shocked the college football world by making a lateral leap to Cincinnati, making way for Louisville to hire native son Jeff Brohm, seemingly everything has gone right.
Brohm is assembling a top-tier staff, leaning into NIL and recruiting, holding on to the majority of Louisville’s vaunted recruiting class, and is killing it in the transfer portal.
Now, fans are beginning to ask just how far this Louisville football team can go in year one under Brohm.
Perhaps, the answer is much further than we could have expected just a couple of months ago.
That is thanks, in part, to a solid blueprint being laid by former conference foe TCU.
The Horned Frogs are relatively new to the Big XII conference, but that hasn’t stopped them from making their presence known.
Now, TCU is looking to go from a former Louisville Conference USA foe to the first Big XII team to win a title in 18 years. Texas won the title in 2005- A time when TCU was still a middle-of-the-road Conference USA squad making the leap to the Mountain West.
The fact that they made this happen under a first-year head coach is all the more incredible, yet even more encouraging for the Cards.
Let’s take a look at the TCU program, how they made a drastic turnaround, and what Louisville football can learn from the Horned Frogs.
The coach and the turnaround
Sonny Dykes came to TCU by way of bitter crosstown rival SMU.
During his time with the Mustangs, Dykes was the first coach with a winning record since the 1980s and finished the 2019 regular season 10-2 with a win over TCU.
In his final three seasons, Dykes led the Mustangs to a 25-9 regular season record after they went 14-23 the three seasons before his arrival.
In his first season at TCU, Dykes has taken a program that went 5-7 the season before to a national title game and a 13-1 record.
TCU finished 2022 13th in total offense, 29th in passing offense, 20th in rushing offense, and 5th in scoring offense among all FBS teams.
The turnaround from his squad was nothing short of extraordinary.
The Frogs finished the 2021 season losing 63-17 to Oklahoma State and 48-14 to Iowa State in two out of their last three games en route to that 7-loss season.
TCU wasn’t just playing poorly, it was often being wiped out in embarrassing fashion.
Last year, TCU finished with a scoring margin of -10.6. This season, TCU finished with a +14.5 margin in the regular season.
This year, TCU wasn’t just a team that saw the stars align and some things fall the right way.
The Frogs often won convincingly en route to a perfect regular season.
The roster
The real question is how Dykes took a program at one of its lowest points in a decade and lead a roster comprised of many of the same players to the title game.
That certainly begins with alterations to the roster- Mostly by way of additions from the transfer portal.
An overview of TCU’s roster and the production it received from the players Dykes and his staff had at its disposal reveals that the Frogs were able to put pieces around an already capable roster to squeeze the most out of this squad.
Defense:
The TCU defense was pretty average for a power five level team, but it served to “ham and egg” it well with the offense and special teams.
Johnny Hodges, a Navy transfer, was TCU’s leading tackler at linebacker.
Colorado safety transfer Mark Perry was second in tackles for the Horned Frogs, while Namdi Obiazor, a JUCO transfer held down another safety position.
Josh Newton, a Louisiana Monroe transfer, locked down one of the corner positions for TCU, finishing second on the team in interceptions and second in passes defended.
Offense:
Offensively, TCU took a major step forward under Dykes and star QB Max Duggan.
Starting along the offensive line, center Alan Ali filled an immediate need after transferring from SMU. He was backed up by Arizona State transfer Ezra Dotson-Oyetade.
In March, after a long journey from JUCO to a two-year walk-on role, Dykes and his staff officially placed Gunner Henderson on scholarship.
The fifth-year senior notched 2 TDs, over 200 yards of offense, and the crucial catch to set up a game-winning field goal at Baylor.
Doing more with less
The narrative in college football is being flipped quickly.
A decade ago, computers, media members, and coaches decided what two teams would be in the national championship game. Nothing else mattered.
Over the last 9 years, the College Football Playoffs have altered that narrative, allowing top-tier teams enough breathing room to slip up and still have an opportunity to reach their ultimate goals.
Now, with the upcoming expansion of the playoffs coupled with NIL and one-time transfer rules, every single Power Five team becomes a factor each and every season.
Although recruiting is still king, having a top 10 class each year is not the end all, be all.
This year’s playoff members may be a sign of what is to come: More parity. And, perhaps, more fun.
Among the four teams in the College Football playoffs, Ohio State, Michigan, and Georgia all have had classes in the top 10 in the last four recruiting cycles.
The average of their composite rankings in that time period — According to 247Sports — is 12th.
The average ranking for TCU in the same span was 35th. That includes a 45th-place finish in the 2022 class and 54th-best class in 2021.
TCU filled out its roster by adding supplemental pieces via the transfer portal to surround its existing core of players.
What Louisville football can learn from TCU’s success
Win in the portal and you can compete
The first thing that Louisville football can take away from TCU’s improbable turnaround is that winning in the transfer portal at least gives you a chance.
The Cards are trying to do just that in year one under Brohm.
Louisville has landed transfers from Tennessee, Miami, Texas A&M, Cal, Penn State, Baylor, Virginia, Stanford, and two of the top available receivers from Jackson State and Georgia State.
The Cards are also reportedly in on players from Wisconsin and Memphis
247Sports ranks Louisville’s transfer class as the 21st in the nation, and that figures to only get better as the offseason continues.
Couple that with Louisville’s quasi-top-25 2023 class, and suddenly Louisville football is adding legitimate supplemental pieces to a solid returning core of players.
Offense is king
Whatever the approach is that Louisville football has taken for the last 4-5 years is simply not the way that the college football world is trending.
Offense is king. Period.
Just take a look a the college football playoff teams and New Year’s Six bowl teams this season.
Scoring offenses among 2022-23 playoff teams
Ohio State: 2nd
TCU: T-4th
Michigan: 6th
Georgia: 8th
Scoring offenses among New Year 6 Bowl teams
Tennessee: 1st
Clemson: 30th
USC: 3rd
Tulane: 19th
Utah: 11th
Penn St: 20th
Alabama: 4th
K-State: 37th
The bad news? Louisville was 74th in scoring offense in 2022 with just 26.9 points per game. Purdue was 75th.
The good news? The Cards are reloading with offensive weapons, with every intention of becoming one of the nation’s elite offensive teams.
The Cards have added four wide receivers via the transfer portal, and another four true freshman pass catchers.
Louisville also added two QBs in Jack Plummer and Pierce Clarkson that can handle the workload in Brohm’s electric offense, and the Cards are revamping an offensive line that was one of the best units in the ACC in 2022.
Defense still matters… at least a little
Check out the scoring defense numbers from this year’s playoff teams.
Michigan: 6th
Georgia: 11th
Ohio State: 14th
TCU: 80th
These squads, for the most part, were still among the best in the country on the defensive side of the ball.
Louisville football was 24th in the country in total defense in 2022. The Cards will have to continue to play up to that standard to start the Brohm era if they want to see immediate success.
TCU’s magical run feels like a one-off right now.
However, the reality may be that this is not just a flash in the pan.
Parity may be the new way of college football. For the sport as a whole, and for this Louisville football program, that is incredibly refreshing to see.
