Following their first win against arch-rival Kentucky since 2017, Louisville basketball will jump feet first into the full slate of conference play within the ACC. Starting with Boston College.
It’s been a rough go for Boston College head coach Jim Christian, as his team currently sits at 2-6 overall. You’d be hard-pressed to find a team that’s faced as many quality teams as the Eagles, holding losses to power schools like Villanova, Florida, St. John’s, Minnesota, Syracuse, and NC State.
Though Louisville basketball comes in riding high, this is a game that they can’t let their guard down. With a young team the high’s can be high’s and the low’s can be low, so hitting the road with a hungry mentality will be crucial. Far too many times we’ve seen an overly confident Louisville bunch travel to play at team like Georgia Tech or BC, only to walk away disappointed with a loss.
BC is a veteran club who has played well in stretches but doesn’t appear to be in any position to compete at the highest level of the ACC. Chris Mack talked about the threat BC faces, saying:
“They’re a talented team, their backcourt is phenomenal, both (Wynston) Tabbs and (Jay) Heath can create their own shot at any point in time with consistency, they’ve got a veteran in Steffon Mitchell who brings the ball up and presents a unique challenge at the front of the court. We have our hands full on Saturday. I don’t take any stock in what their record is, because like I said, I’m looking at their talent level. The fact they were down 12 or 14 on the road last night, and then had a one point lead with 20 seconds to go tells you all you need to know about their firepower. We’ve got to be a different team on both ends of the floor, each and every game and this is a big game for us.”
So what can we expect from Boston College? Here’s a quick preview of today’s 12:00 game.
Also relevant: How Charles Minlend is going to help Louisville basketball
What’s at stake
Louisville basketball has the chance to spark a big winning streak, as they’ll face opponents like Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, Wake Forest, and Miami in the weeks ahead. While there is no such thing as a “guarantee” the game against BC is a game that everyone expects Louisville to win.
It may not feel like it but Louisville sits at 6-1 overall and 1-0 in the ACC. With a win against BC, they’d move to 2-0 in the conference and set up the opportunity to be favored in three of their next four. That means potentially sitting at 11-1 or 10-2 overall if things go well. Which would mean being 6-0 or 5-1 in the ACC heading into back-to-back games against FSU and Duke.
That’s a long way to look, I get it. But the point stands. Louisville needs a win here to ride momentum into a series of winnable games.
For Boston College, they just need a win to keep their season alive. The schedule that they’ve faced thus far, certainly will have them prepared. Therefore, they won’t be afraid of Louisville. With a dangerous veteran backcourt and a couple of solid bigs, BC has the tools to knock off Louisville.
What to know:
Who: Louisville @ Boston College
When: Saturday, January 2nd @ 12:00 PM
Where: Conte Forum, Chestnut Hill, MA
TV: ACC Network Extra (Fox Sports Go Mobile App w/ TV subscription)
Radio: 790 WKRD (Paul Rogers, Bob Valvano)
Spread check: Louisville -5
Streaks: Louisville W1, BC L1
Uniform check:
Keys to a Louisville basketball win:
Make everyone not named Wynston Tabbs & Jay Heath beat you
Although Boston College is one of the worst teams in the ACC, on any given night their guard duo of Wynston Tabbs and Jay Heath can beat you.
To win, you have take away their biggest scoring threats – it’s that simple. Though BC is a high scoring team, averaging nearly 75 points per game, Tabbs & Heath are responsible for 28.2 points per night. The Eagles do have multiple guys who are capable of getting hot and having big nights – but without their stars leading the way a win is near impossible.
Both guards are strong and physically capable guards who are capable of scoring at all three levels. They’ll mainly focus on getting to the rack off the dribble, but if Tabbs or Heath are left open from deep they can hurt you. Tabbs is the more dangerous, connecting on 42% of three’s.
Louisville needs to limit the damage done inside by graduate transfer James Karnik, the only other player averaging double figures in points. He’s a smooth big who operates well inside thanks to his mobility. Steffon Mitchell, Makai-Ashton Langford, Rich Kelly, and CJ Felder are other players to watch.
Hit open three’s
This will probably end up being a key for Louisville basketball every time they take the floor. Louisville is currently shooting just 31.9% from deep and is missing a consistent knockdown shooter. Though the stats book say that Hogan Orbaugh and JJ Traynor are Louisville’s best shooters, it’s actually Carlik Jones (47.1%) and David Johnson (40%) that lead the way in terms of volume.
We’ve gotten what we expected from Jones as a shooter while Johnson has been a nice surprise, knocking down 40% (he went 3/4 against Kentucky) of his attempts. Outside of them, the ability to knock down three’s is a toss up.
On the struggles, Mack said:
“I think we just have to continue to take good open threes. I think we have to be cognizant of the time and score, and the context of the shot. If we just missed two or three wide-open threes in a row, or we turned the ball over, is it early in the shot clock. It’s not like we’ve got to make nine or 10 more of them, we just got to hit a couple of them. We have better shooters than I think the last three games have shown, but having said that, they got to go in. We got to worry more about running our offense harder, with more purpose. I think getting cheap baskets, pushing the pace way more than we are, or have been, that’s more of a concern than making a few more open ones. But that would certainly help.”
Boston College ranks 192nd in the country in three point shooting defense, which should allow for Louisville to get good looks. However as we’ve seen, good looks doesn’t necessarily result in knocked down shots.
Louisville is trending downward in three-point shooting, which isn’t a great sign. Over their last three games, they are 15/51 overall but do sit at 2-1 in the record books. As a team who operates a ton in the pick and roll, shots at the rim have been the preference over deep three’s but against a team like BC that will have to change. BC has been really good at defending teams in the pick and roll this season and there’s no reason to believe that changes today.
BC will make Louisville take three’s and if they want to win they’ll have to knock them down.
Matchup to watch
The biggest matchup that I’ll be watching against Boston College may surprise you. All eyes will be on how DJ and Carlik match up with Tabbs & Heath. But for me, I’m more interested in watching how redshirt freshman JaeLyn Withers performs against two crafty & veteran bigs.
As Chris Mack mentioned during his press-conference, senior Steffon Mitchell is a mismatch despite his limitations as a scorer. At 6’8, 220-pounds, Mitchell not only crashes the glass extremely well but is a guy capable of bringing the ball up the floor. As one of the best rebounders in the ACC each of the past two seasons, Mitchell is going to be a relentless force that Withers will have to deal with.
Then there’s Kranik, who I mentioned before. He averages 10 points per game and shoots over 56% from the field. Whether he’s running the floor in transition, posting up inside, or cleaning up around the rim, Kranik is a crafty veteran who won’t be phased by the athleticism and length of Withers.
That athleticism and length is what should help Withers win his matchups. In each game this season Withers has shown me something new and I don’t expect that to stop today.
I’m looking for another 10 and 10 type of performance, similar to what he did against Kentucky.
