Louisville basketball faces its most important game of the season as it hosts Virginia on senior day.
The stakes haven’t been much higher all season for Louisville basketball.
The Cardinals boast a resume with only one true bad loss. However, its long quadrant 1 win is at Duke last Saturday.
This week, Louisville gets a Virginia squad that would serve to bolster its resume and plant the Cards squarely in the NCAA Tournament. A loss and the Cards leave their fate in the hands of the tournament committee.
In a season where Louisville will only get in 19 games and, likely, only six opportunities for quadrant one wins, a victory of Tony Bennett’s squad would feel like two wins in a normal season. A loss, however, could yield the exact opposite result.
A lot is on the line, so let’s get right to it.
Who: Virginia at Louisville
Where: KFC Yum! Center, Louisville, KY
When: March 6th, 2021 at 4:00 PM ET
TV: ESPN 2
Radio: WHAS 840 AM in Louisville
Last Meeting: Virginia won 57-54 in Charlottesville on March 7th, 2020
Spread Check: Virginia -2 (Opened UVA -4)
Uniform Check: It’s Senior Day. Wear Red!
🔴 GAMEDAY + SENIOR DAY 🔴#GoCards pic.twitter.com/wPgqw6fsah
— Louisville Basketball (@LouisvilleMBB) March 6, 2021
Virginia is beatable, even for Louisville
Last year, it felt like Chris Mack and Louisville basketball got a huge monkey off its back by finally beating Virginia again.
No team, save Kentucky, has given the Cardinals more fits over the last decade than the Cavaliers.
However, Tony Bennett’s defending national championship squad (ew) is just kind of boring. Like, more meh than usual.
Junior Kehei Clark returns as a heady leader at point guard. He is a name that many fans know well, but he is what he always has been, and that is good news for a team that will run David Johnson and Carlik Jones at him.
Other than Clark, Virginia’s two main contributors are transfer Sam Hauser and big man Jay Huff.
Hauser will be an all-conference player. He is one of the more efficient forwards in college basketball and leads the Cavs with 15.5 points and 6.7 rebounds per game. He presents a match-up issue similar to Duke’s Matthew Hurt, who just dropped a career-high 37 against the Cards.
Huff has been much improved as a stretch five this season. He attempts more than three 3-point shots per game and hits them at a successful clip. However, without Jack Salt and Mamadi Diakite, Huff has had to shoulder the load for the Cavs down low.
That, however, is Virginia’s core three, and the Cavaliers do not have a ton of offensive weapons outside of those players.
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Virginia plays at Louisville’s pace
Louisville basketball has played notably slower this season. Virginia, as you might expect, has been even slower.
As always, the Cavs want to slow things down, muck it up, and force you into taking bad shots late in the shot clock. Sound like anyone you know?
Louisville’s adjusted tempo is No. 288 in the country according to Ken Pomeroy. Virginia? Dead last. 357th.
This is an instance where it could behoove Louisville to get out on the break just a little bit and try to force the issue against UVA.
Turnovers and rebounding are key
The Cavs are not going to beat themselves. They are last in the ACC in turnovers and don’t force many more than their opponents. Like Louisville, they are going to stay at home, play soundly, and limit your possessions to one-and-done.
If Louisville is to win this game, the Cardinals have to create second chance opportunities, and they must limit turnovers as best they can.
Predictions
Presley Meyer: Louisville 64, Virginia 54
Matt McGavic: Louisville 59, Virginia 61
Spencer Brown: Louisville 57, Virginia 61
Jacob Lane: Louisville 62, Virginia 59
